Tuesday, May 29, 2012

Facebook shares. What did you expect?

The Facebook "debacle" is a term much bandied about today. I find it very difficult to imagine how anyone thought an IPO for a company based upon the whimsical fads of users could be an investment of any kind. This is just another example of post 90's dot-com fever that people should have looked at and said "Once bitten-twice shy"

One of the big problems is that Facebook's attempts to monetize a free web-app has been to open up the system to intrusive and frankly egregiously pushy applications. When one uses an app these days the first page says "MyCrapApp will have the right to see your personal data, access your friends lists and post on your behalf" I tried this for a couple of days with the SchoolFeed application which became so annoyingly free with posting on my behalf that it was difficult for friends and family to decide what I was actually doing in amongst all the carefully constructed spam.

Facebook now has vast restrictions, having to satisfy shareholder demands. Unfortunately, the demand for shareholder profits will be nearly impossible to realise because as popular as Facebook is, it cannot compete in the same space as Google for advertising revenue.

It won't be long before the shareholders boot Zuckerberg from the board, the "team" who takes over will never be able to drive the worlds greatest white-elephant in any meaningful direction so Facebook will become the next (or next but n) MySpace.

I give Facebook three years before it becomes a cheap buyout for Google or Microsoft to gain a few hundred million hang-on users. Mark had better put his billions in a nice interest earning account someplace and learn to live a frugal life.

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