Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Singularity and the common man

For some time people have proposed the idea of a moment when machine intelligence will outstrip that of not only humans as individuals but that of the entire collective race. Ray Kurzweil has predicted this in around 2040 and suggests that at this time artificial intelligence will be able to solve all the problems of the world and elevate mankind to a state of pampered security without the need for jobs, money or struggle against illness.
Is this possible or just hogwash? Strangely, despite my cynical nature I think so! There are however, as always, caveats that will make such a process difficult in the shorter term and which will make transition to such a new age of plenty very painful for some.
The greatest question of what will we do when machines can do everything? springs to mind. There is indeed a possibility that this might be answered sooner rather than later and this answer will become a test for how we deal with what may be inevitable.
Today Google and now others have perfectly functional self-driving cars that perform driving tasks far more reliably than people. A self driving vehicle cannot become drunk or use recreational drugs. Neither can they fall asleep at the wheel or suffer bouts of road rage. While not even truly intelligent, the software mechanisms and hardware integration is simple enough that the processing power in a mobile phone can now take on the principle job of truck drivers the world over. Companies would certainly prefer to have a tireless self driving truck deliver goods without obligatory rest stops or accidents caused by overworked drivers distracted by their CB radio or texting while driving. Unions however will inevitably see this as erosion of rights and an excuse for companies to eliminate their entire workforce in favour of robot vehicles. Unless it is done carefully, the destruction of robot trucks will be guaranteed by all ex truck drivers and a new age of luddite values will hold sway.
The truck driver then must probably become the model for this new world order that will surely arrive if we continue to develop intelligent machines that can take on otherwise human tasks. Truck drivers will necessarily become well-paid and pampered chaperones of machines with a highly desirable job that will probably become regulated by a guild structure once again. After all, when you have to do nothing but accompany a robot truck on a thirty seven hour non-stop journey with no stress and no actual work to do, well then everyone will want to be a truck driver!
Once again, the traditional job of the desperate immigrant, Taxi driving, would be eliminated by self driving, one hundred percent safe and reliable taxis. Of course, the process of ensuring that excessively drunk passengers do not board and that vandalism does not take place during the journey should rightly fall to a supervisor who should be paid for their work. This would continue until such times as the taxi itself is intelligent enough to refuse a fare based upon the comportment of the client or go directly to a police station if vandalism is instigated.
As society becomes more used to the idea that we have no choice but to pay people for doing essentially nothing, so then will companies have to accept that giving away their goods for free is the norm. Why should a food distributor pay a wage when they can simply feed their employees instead? Logical knock-on consequences would continue up and down the supply chain such that organised barter would become a great part of the commercial structure. This all implies that radical and fundamental changes must occur in society if we are to continue on track in our technological development.
The logical conclusion of this becomes a race of humans with no need for work. This could mean no need for education because education today is mostly preparation for work. The possible future portrayed in E. M. Forster's <i>The Machine Stops</i> is too horrible to imagine yet all too possible. Another possible future would be that the human race would be subject to compulsory continuous secular education interspersed with the creation of personal development projects.
The ultimate question of what will we do when machines can do everything else is probably that we could spend a long and full life raising children with no need to worry about war, with no need for money and no worry about health care costs. Insurance would be redundant, as would the mortgage. These two burdens alone would alleviate vast suffering because the need for a country with vast resources to maintain them within it's borders to promote the cycle of cashflow would also be redundant meaning that resources could be shared with the rest of the world. The truth is that more well-off people have fewer children and spend more time improving their own minds and bodies. This could become universal. What will be required without doubt is original creative work by people to share with others. The currency of the human race in such a world would be the currency of fame engendered by the personal talents of exceptional people. No longer would the billionaire be the most important person but the actor, the sportsman, the writer, the comedian. The intangible products of the human mind are after all the true currency of society, everything else is support and enablement.






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