Thursday, August 02, 2012

Your interest in technology will be nothing compared to technology's interest in you

The advance of technology is a logarithmic one. Ray Kurzweil, amongst others, correctly suggests that the time between significant milestones in human development are becoming closer together at an accelerating rate. The time between the invention of the transistor and the invention of the integrated circuit was far longer than the time it took to create a viable microprocessor on an integrated circuit. Moore's law has seen the computational power of the computer double in scale every eighteen months so that now, you carry more processing power in your pocket than most large companies would have owned thirty years ago.
In the last few weeks, a complete simulation of all the chemical processes in a single celled organism, Mycoplasma genitalium, a sexually transmitted disease, has been acheived such that the cell can be considered to have actually lived and completed its entire life-cycle inside a computer.

Interestingly enough, the ideas behind object orientation were originally conceived in the context of explaining biological functions and were only later adapted to computer software engineering. The simulation of the Mycoplasma genitalium organism was accomplished by a highly granular object oriented approach in which the DNA coding and protein production within the cell was simulated by a tree of dependent objects. We can assume then that the human cells of which we are composed will have the same mechanisms as those of bacterial cells and can therefore be simulated in the same way. All that would be required to fully simulate a human being would be enough memory and enough computational power to run many trillions of tasks in parallel.

Conventional thinkers tend to project the future in the context of the past such that predictions of things happening, say, on a twenty year timescale do not take into account that twenty years worth of development and knowledge can now be achieved in ten or fifteen years. Soon that same advance in knowledge will take only five years. Great advances in technology can therefore come more and more quickly so that in the end the rate of advancement looks like an explosion. This would be the point of singularity.

When technology becomes able to edit it's own source code the algorithms will evolve far faster than we will be able to keep up with and technology will eventually be able to re-engineer its biological precursors at will. The interest a super intelligent machine might take in the affairs of human beings may become of far greater importance than the interest we have in it.


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